The world in 2050: Projections on poverty, hunger, jobs, climate change and resource scarcity.

When the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development was adopted, the world had emerged from the 2007-08 global financial crisis, and economic prospects looked promising. Extreme poverty was declining at an unprecedented rate, and the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG)—to cut the 1990 poverty rate in half by 2015—had been achieved six years ahead of schedule. The momentum generated by these successes fuelled ambitious targets set within the 2030 Agenda, which sought to build on the accomplishments of the past decade. Nearly a decade later, the outlook is less optimistic. The combined effects of climate change, geopolitical instability, and the global pandemic have significantly disrupted the trajectory of progress. Without decisive action to change course, the future remains uncertain. Recent projections from various international organizations on different dimensions of sustainable development paint a sobering picture of what lies ahead if current trends persist (see Table 1).

 By 2050, it is estimated that approximately 450 million people will still be living in extreme poverty, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, which will continue to host a significant share of the world’s impoverished population. Similarly, the number of malnourished people is projected to reach 230 million, with sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia bearing the heaviest burdens. This situation can partially be explained by the fact that employment growth is not keeping pace with the needs of the growing workforce, particularly in regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, where a rapid increase in job opportunities is essential. These projections are in stark contrast with SDGs 1 and 2 targets to eradicate poverty and achieve zero hunger by 2030, highlighting the urgent need for intensified efforts to significantly modify our current trajectory and effectively address these ongoing challenges. It is particularly alarming that the most severe social deprivation will in the future be concentrated in specific regions of the world, further exacerbating global inequalities (see Figure 1).

 By 2050, nearly 75% of individuals living in extreme poverty are projected to live in LICs and lower middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa. Likewise, over 80% of those who are malnourished will be living in land LMICs across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. This concentration highlights the disproportionate impacts of global challenges and emphasizes the urgent need for targeted interventions and policies that address regional inequalities and ensure that no one is left behind. Climate change and resource scarcity add another layer of complexity to the challenges anticipated by 2050, with global environmental conditions expected to deteriorate further. Official projections indicate that CO2 emissions and resource extraction rates will exceed sustainable limits, intensifying the effects of climate change. Water stress will also become a critical concern, affecting one billion people by 2050. This will complicate efforts to alleviate poverty and ensure food security in increasingly harsh environmental conditions. The projections are even more alarming when considering the intersection of environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The countries where poverty and malnutrition will be most prevalent are also expected to experience the most severe impacts of climate change.

As illustrated in Figure 2, recent projections suggest that LICs and LMICs in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are likely to witness the most substantial increases in climate-related fatalities by 2050. Without decisive climate action, these regions, which are already grappling with socioeconomic challenges, will face even greater risks from climate change. The urgency to change our current trajectory and build a more equitable global economy can not be overstated. 

Achieving this objective goes beyond economic growth; it requires a holistic approach to address economic inequalities, social injustice and environmental challenges. These challenges disproportionately impact the Global South, and without substantial development initiatives and policy reforms, the disparities between the North and South will only widen. Striking a better balance requires a multifaceted strategy that integrates economic development with social equity and ecological sustainability, promoting a development model that benefits us all, not just a select few. One crucial question is where to start the necessary shift in trajectory. Historically, industrialization has proven to be an effective strategy for reducing poverty, alleviating malnutrition, and creating productive employment opportunities. Countries such as the Republic of Korea and China exemplify how planned development measures and targeted industrial policies can catalyse significant economic and social transformations. Government-led strategies that have promoted export-oriented industrialization in the Republic of Korea since the 1960s have resulted in notable reductions in poverty and inequality. The shift from agriculture to manufacturing has fuelled high growth rates, introduced structural changes in the economy, and considerably lowered poverty levels. Likewise, China’s remarkable achievements in poverty alleviation over the past four decades are closely linked to its emergence as a global industrial powerhouse. During this period, nearly 800 million people were lifted out of poverty—accounting for nearly 75 per cent of the global reduction in extreme poverty—while the share of Chinese manufacturing in global production surged from 3 per cent to over 30 per cent between 1990 and 2022. The strong link between industrialization and poverty alleviation is supported by recent research, which highlights the critical role of industrialization in reducing poverty. Studies show that structural shifts towards a more diversified and high-output manufacturing sector, along with the resultant productivity gains, have been instrumental in alleviating poverty, particularly in developing regions of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Evidence suggests that economic policies centred on industrial development are essential for enhancing the poverty-reducing effects of economic growth, emphasizing the crucial intersection of industrial policy and the improvement of living standards.